← Grand Archive: Phantom Monarchs - Regional Championship
Water AetherwingTier 1
at Grand Archive: Phantom Monarchs - Regional Championship
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Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Fractal | 18.6% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 61.7% | +11.3 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 9.3% | 3 | 1-1-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.1% | -1.4 |
| Fire Aggro | 7.0% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 59.1% | +8.8 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 7.0% | 5 | 2-3-0 | 40.0% | 44.4% | 46.9% | -1.8 |
| Fire Slimes | 4.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 52.6% | +4.1 |
| Fire Suzaku | 4.7% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 56.3% | +6.1 |
| Water Allies | 4.7% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 58.7% | +8.3 |
| Water Genbu | 4.7% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 55.7% | +5.4 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 4.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.8% | +15.6 |
| Wind Byakko | 4.7% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 58.3% | +8.0 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 2.3% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.5% | -0.5 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Oblation | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ciel | 2.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.4% | +7.1 |
| Water Chess | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 2.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.6% | -8.7 |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 2.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.5% | -16.9 |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 2.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.4% | +5.5 |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 5 from this event
The 5 public Water Aetherwing decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 12 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 12 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Song of Frost | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Frostbind | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Refreshing Charge | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Aetheric Calibration | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Peer Beyond | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Snow White, Weiss Queen | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Throne-Keeper Bullfrog | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Overlapping Visages | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Drown in Aether | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Cerulean Decree | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Reposition | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Seeker's Aetherwing | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 |